Several prediction markets have recently offered a bet at around 62¢ which superforecasters assign around 85% probability. This resulted in a rare temptation for me to Kelly bet. Calculating the Kelly formula, I found that I was supposed to put 60% of my bankroll on this.
Is this assuming you take the 85% number directly as your credence?
Is this assuming you take the 85% number directly as your credence?
Right.