My main point was that you quoted 42% when the win rate was 84%.
Even if there’s no cap on winrate, I don’t think you should necessarily expect to “self-improve to beat the best human players every time.” Even in a game of perfect information I think there are 2+ orders of magnitude of scale (or equivalent algorithmic progress) where you will beat human players 60-99% of the time.
So I think it could make sense to be surprised “Isn’t Stratego easy enough that AI should be crushing humans?” but it would not make sense to say “Given that AI is able to beat humans at Stratego, why is it not able to crush them every time?”
(Note that humans could potentially do better if they knew they were playing against a much stronger opponent and trying to play for a lucky win.)
My main point was that you quoted 42% when the win rate was 84%.
Even if there’s no cap on winrate, I don’t think you should necessarily expect to “self-improve to beat the best human players every time.” Even in a game of perfect information I think there are 2+ orders of magnitude of scale (or equivalent algorithmic progress) where you will beat human players 60-99% of the time.
So I think it could make sense to be surprised “Isn’t Stratego easy enough that AI should be crushing humans?” but it would not make sense to say “Given that AI is able to beat humans at Stratego, why is it not able to crush them every time?”
(Note that humans could potentially do better if they knew they were playing against a much stronger opponent and trying to play for a lucky win.)