For what it’s worth, I’ve had a similar discussion with John in another comment thread where he said that he doesn’t believe the probability of doom is 1, he just believes it’s some p≫0 that doesn’t depend too much on the time we have to work on problems past a time horizon of 1 week or so.
This is consistent with your model and so I don’t think John actually believes that the probability of doom is 1 and I don’t think he would necessarily disagree with your model either. On the other hand in your model the probability of doom asymptotes to some p≫0 as extra time goes to infinity, so it’s also not true that extra time would be very helpful in this situation past a certain point.
TBC, I believe that the value of more time rapidly asymptotes specifically for the purpose of finding problems by trying things and seeing what goes wrong. More time is still valuable for progress via other channels.
For what it’s worth, I’ve had a similar discussion with John in another comment thread where he said that he doesn’t believe the probability of doom is 1, he just believes it’s some p≫0 that doesn’t depend too much on the time we have to work on problems past a time horizon of 1 week or so.
This is consistent with your model and so I don’t think John actually believes that the probability of doom is 1 and I don’t think he would necessarily disagree with your model either. On the other hand in your model the probability of doom asymptotes to some p≫0 as extra time goes to infinity, so it’s also not true that extra time would be very helpful in this situation past a certain point.
TBC, I believe that the value of more time rapidly asymptotes specifically for the purpose of finding problems by trying things and seeing what goes wrong. More time is still valuable for progress via other channels.