Well, there is a provably finite possibility space for stories. You only have so many ways to arrange letters in a script. The question is whether it’s meaningful.
To use some completely made-up numbers, I think the current possibility space for movies produced by the bottom 80% of people with the current style may be 90% covered. The space for the top 2%, on the other hand, is probably covered for less than 0.1% (and I resisted putting in more zeros there).
To get more concrete, I’ll name some pieces (which I avoided doing in my initial post). Take Game of Thrones. It’s a huge deal – why? Well, because there isn’t really anything like it, But when you get rid of all the typical story tropes, like main characters with invulnerability, predictable plot progressions, a heroic minority lucking out against an evil majority, typical villains, etc etc, not only does the result get better, the possibility space actually widens. (I’m not saying scripts of this quality don’t exist, but it seems to be the only show where a great script and a huge budget and a competent team came together. There could be thousands of shows like this, and there is just one).
Or take the movie Being John Malkovich. Basically, there is one supernatural element placed in an otherwise scientifically operating world, and you have a bunch of character who act like normal humans, meaning largely selfish and emotionally driven, acting over that element. Just thinking about how much you could do following that formula opens up a large area in that seems to be largely untouched.
I think we’re shooting at Pluto over and over again while (for the most part) ignoring the rest of the universe. And it still works, because production quality and effects are still improving.
Interesting points, yea you’re getting at the heart of what I’m trying to figure out. I think you’re right, that it’s easy to see how the story possibilities that use the simplest story types (Hero’s Journey, etc) have possibly been ~90% completed.
But what makes you think that more complex story types allow many more possibilities? Along the lines of your point, Game of Thrones is a fantasy epic with a much darker tone that breaks storytelling conventions, but wouldn’t any fantasy epic series with similar attributes in the future seem less groundbreaking than Game of Thrones? I agree that you could apply similar attributes to a Sci Fi epic series, or another type of series, but it seems like that type of story would begin to get old in the near future as well. On the television front, there are so many shows being created that it’s hard to see how they can keep being groundbreaking.
With arty / more complex films like Being John Malkovich or Adaptation or Eternal Sunshine (I’m a fan of those Kaufman movies), does complexity lead to more possibilities of these types of movies or less? There seems to be a slowdown in more arty / complex stories this decade (than compared to the 90′s for example).
With film and television creation being more democratized than ever, I don’t see a reason why the creation of these type of films would slow down apart from the remaining stories requiring more complexity and skill to write than ever. I think we agree on the necessity of higher skill in writing currently. But, it seems to me that a slowdown in the category of non-traditional or unique stories would mean that we are running out of those story possibilities as well.
But what makes you think that more complex story types allow many more possibilities?
Isn’t that an inherent property of complexity? A larger set of elements → a larger powerset of elements → more possibilities. In fact the size of the powerset grows at 2^x. I think a second game of thrones would be less groundbreaking, but doesn’t have to be worse… and the same goes for the 1000th GoT.
There seems to be a slowdown in more arty / complex stories this decade (than compared to the 90′s for example).
With film and television creation being more democratized than ever, I don’t see a reason why the creation of these type of films would slow down apart from the remaining stories requiring more complexity and skill to write than ever.
I don’t know as much as you about the industry. These sound worrisome.
I still think it is more likely that there is another reason (not that bold of an assumption) than that we really run out of complex things to write, because that just doesn’t seem to be true looking at how complexity works and how much seems to be doable just by tweaking those more complex pieces we have. Adaption is another great example.
But, I might be suffering from bias here, because I much prefer the world where I’m right to the one where I’m wrong.
Yes I see what you’re saying. I think a larger set of elements does not mean that all combination of those elements “works” as a movie story. It seems better to view possibilities as limited and sparse distinct points. A movie like Star Wars requires the correct combination of thousands of factors, and if you only had the right balance of half of the factors then there wouldn’t necessarily be another workable story there.
I guess the point I’m trying to make is that there seems to be a certain number of distinct point possibilities of movie stories that isn’t directly a factor of the set of elements involved.
I agree with you though, I’m not sure there is an iron-clad proof of this idea. I think it being proved right will depend on reaching a point where many people start to view our greatest works as being behind us, and wonder why that is the case.
Well, there is a provably finite possibility space for stories. You only have so many ways to arrange letters in a script. The question is whether it’s meaningful.
To use some completely made-up numbers, I think the current possibility space for movies produced by the bottom 80% of people with the current style may be 90% covered. The space for the top 2%, on the other hand, is probably covered for less than 0.1% (and I resisted putting in more zeros there).
To get more concrete, I’ll name some pieces (which I avoided doing in my initial post). Take Game of Thrones. It’s a huge deal – why? Well, because there isn’t really anything like it, But when you get rid of all the typical story tropes, like main characters with invulnerability, predictable plot progressions, a heroic minority lucking out against an evil majority, typical villains, etc etc, not only does the result get better, the possibility space actually widens. (I’m not saying scripts of this quality don’t exist, but it seems to be the only show where a great script and a huge budget and a competent team came together. There could be thousands of shows like this, and there is just one).
Or take the movie Being John Malkovich. Basically, there is one supernatural element placed in an otherwise scientifically operating world, and you have a bunch of character who act like normal humans, meaning largely selfish and emotionally driven, acting over that element. Just thinking about how much you could do following that formula opens up a large area in that seems to be largely untouched.
I think we’re shooting at Pluto over and over again while (for the most part) ignoring the rest of the universe. And it still works, because production quality and effects are still improving.
(edited)
Interesting points, yea you’re getting at the heart of what I’m trying to figure out. I think you’re right, that it’s easy to see how the story possibilities that use the simplest story types (Hero’s Journey, etc) have possibly been ~90% completed.
But what makes you think that more complex story types allow many more possibilities? Along the lines of your point, Game of Thrones is a fantasy epic with a much darker tone that breaks storytelling conventions, but wouldn’t any fantasy epic series with similar attributes in the future seem less groundbreaking than Game of Thrones? I agree that you could apply similar attributes to a Sci Fi epic series, or another type of series, but it seems like that type of story would begin to get old in the near future as well. On the television front, there are so many shows being created that it’s hard to see how they can keep being groundbreaking.
With arty / more complex films like Being John Malkovich or Adaptation or Eternal Sunshine (I’m a fan of those Kaufman movies), does complexity lead to more possibilities of these types of movies or less? There seems to be a slowdown in more arty / complex stories this decade (than compared to the 90′s for example).
With film and television creation being more democratized than ever, I don’t see a reason why the creation of these type of films would slow down apart from the remaining stories requiring more complexity and skill to write than ever. I think we agree on the necessity of higher skill in writing currently. But, it seems to me that a slowdown in the category of non-traditional or unique stories would mean that we are running out of those story possibilities as well.
Isn’t that an inherent property of complexity? A larger set of elements → a larger powerset of elements → more possibilities. In fact the size of the powerset grows at 2^x. I think a second game of thrones would be less groundbreaking, but doesn’t have to be worse… and the same goes for the 1000th GoT.
I don’t know as much as you about the industry. These sound worrisome.
I still think it is more likely that there is another reason (not that bold of an assumption) than that we really run out of complex things to write, because that just doesn’t seem to be true looking at how complexity works and how much seems to be doable just by tweaking those more complex pieces we have. Adaption is another great example.
But, I might be suffering from bias here, because I much prefer the world where I’m right to the one where I’m wrong.
Yes I see what you’re saying. I think a larger set of elements does not mean that all combination of those elements “works” as a movie story. It seems better to view possibilities as limited and sparse distinct points. A movie like Star Wars requires the correct combination of thousands of factors, and if you only had the right balance of half of the factors then there wouldn’t necessarily be another workable story there.
I guess the point I’m trying to make is that there seems to be a certain number of distinct point possibilities of movie stories that isn’t directly a factor of the set of elements involved.
I agree with you though, I’m not sure there is an iron-clad proof of this idea. I think it being proved right will depend on reaching a point where many people start to view our greatest works as being behind us, and wonder why that is the case.
I always thought it’s because of blood and boobs. No?
Nah, there are lots of other ways to see blood and boobs. And it was a big deal as a book series too.
I think you’re right, but it’s worth noting that being a socially acceptable source of blood and boobs could go a long way.