Two cases are possible: Either a singleton is established and it is able to remain a singleton due to strategic interests (of either AGI or the group), or a singleton loses its lead and we have a multipolar situation with more than 1 groups having AGI.
In case 1, if the lead established is say, 6 months or more, it might not be possible for the 2nd place group to get there as the work done during this period by the lead would be driven by intelligence explosion, and far faster than the 2nd. This only incentivizes going forward as fast as possible and is not a good safety mindset.
In case 2, we have the risk of multiple projects developing AGI and thus the risk of something going wrong also increases. Even if group 1 is able to implement safety measures, some other group might fail, and the outcome would be disastrous, unless AGI by the Group 1 is specifically going to solve the control problem for us.
Two cases are possible: Either a singleton is established and it is able to remain a singleton due to strategic interests (of either AGI or the group), or a singleton loses its lead and we have a multipolar situation with more than 1 groups having AGI.
In case 1, if the lead established is say, 6 months or more, it might not be possible for the 2nd place group to get there as the work done during this period by the lead would be driven by intelligence explosion, and far faster than the 2nd. This only incentivizes going forward as fast as possible and is not a good safety mindset.
In case 2, we have the risk of multiple projects developing AGI and thus the risk of something going wrong also increases. Even if group 1 is able to implement safety measures, some other group might fail, and the outcome would be disastrous, unless AGI by the Group 1 is specifically going to solve the control problem for us.