Can’t see the graph for some reason. But I don’t agree with your characterization. It’s the market’s estimate of CPI-measured inflation. I suppose you could call that “real economic yield’, but I don’t think there exists any such measure, especially if you’re expecting it to be comparable during a strong-AI revolution.
This may be a definition disagreement. IMO, there are a LOT of changes, economic and otherwise, that go into “AI timelines”, which won’t be priced in to CPI-inflation predictions.
Can’t see the graph for some reason. But I don’t agree with your characterization. It’s the market’s estimate of CPI-measured inflation. I suppose you could call that “real economic yield’, but I don’t think there exists any such measure, especially if you’re expecting it to be comparable during a strong-AI revolution.
It’s the estimate of real economic growth. If AGI has a good chance of happening in the next 30 years and it’s priced in, that graph should go up.
This may be a definition disagreement. IMO, there are a LOT of changes, economic and otherwise, that go into “AI timelines”, which won’t be priced in to CPI-inflation predictions.
30y-TIPS seems like a better fit.