I do agree that the chip ban won’t stay relevant for long. My guess is that it maybe bought an 8 month delay, +/- 2 months? Of course, we need to maintain the ban to keep the lead we got from doing this, so the ban remains relevant until China has fully caught up in chip making capacity or until someone gets to economically and militarily decisive AI (which I expect can be achieved even before AGI, if AGI gets delayed for longer than the 36 months which I expect it in).
I think the next 24 months are going to be critical. Thus, if you think the chip ban slowed China by even a few months, then it is/was quite relevant indeed.
I do agree that the chip ban won’t stay relevant for long. My guess is that it maybe bought an 8 month delay, +/- 2 months? Of course, we need to maintain the ban to keep the lead we got from doing this, so the ban remains relevant until China has fully caught up in chip making capacity or until someone gets to economically and militarily decisive AI (which I expect can be achieved even before AGI, if AGI gets delayed for longer than the 36 months which I expect it in).