This post sounds to me like the author almost invented prediction markets or other well-known expert-fusion information-aggregation techniques, but then fell into “not invented here” syndrome, rationalizing and hypothesizing unproven advantages to the tiny differences between histocracy and the other similar ideas.
Possibly this points out a flaw in our allocation of prestige—in order to correctly incent adoption, we need to spread prestige from the first or most well-known advocate of an idea to the early adopters. See Derek Siver’s idea of the First Follower: http://sivers.org/ff
I am not an expert, I just think it’s a big field, with a lot of work done in it. There’s an entire journal called “Information Fusion” for example (though I don’t think highly of Dempster-Schafer stuff).
This post sounds to me like the author almost invented prediction markets or other well-known expert-fusion information-aggregation techniques, but then fell into “not invented here” syndrome, rationalizing and hypothesizing unproven advantages to the tiny differences between histocracy and the other similar ideas.
Possibly this points out a flaw in our allocation of prestige—in order to correctly incent adoption, we need to spread prestige from the first or most well-known advocate of an idea to the early adopters. See Derek Siver’s idea of the First Follower: http://sivers.org/ff
Do you have some examples in mind?
I am not an expert, I just think it’s a big field, with a lot of work done in it. There’s an entire journal called “Information Fusion” for example (though I don’t think highly of Dempster-Schafer stuff).
The best exemplar I can point to is Freund and Schapire’s “Adaptive game playing using multiplicative weights”: http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~yfreund/papers/games_long.pdf
Another possibly-decent review is Blum and Mansour’s chapter on regret minimization: www.cs.cmu.edu/~avrim/Papers/regret-chapter.pdf
Thankyou, I was curious!
Not my particular sin, since I came up with this before hearing of prediction markets.