You could try using a linear regression to predict the correct answer from votes. That would still be fairly simple and transparent. The usual linear regression tries to minimise the squared error of the prediction, but that should probably be tweaked when predicting a binary answer. Dunno if you can get it to make sense from a Bayesian viewpoint.
You could try using a linear regression to predict the correct answer from votes. That would still be fairly simple and transparent. The usual linear regression tries to minimise the squared error of the prediction, but that should probably be tweaked when predicting a binary answer. Dunno if you can get it to make sense from a Bayesian viewpoint.
“Maximize the log probability given to the correct outcome” is possibly the Bayesian way. Instead of a line, just choose some curve.