If you are able to habitualize taking the outside view to determine deadlines by default, you still may not perfectly predict how long things will take, but this will no longer be due to the planning fallacy.
The point Czynski is making is that the diagram does not help us do that. Using the diagram, we mark an inference with a crooked line if we recognize that it is biased, and a straight line if we think it’s unbiased. So if we forget a given bias, the diagram does not help us remember to e.g. take the outside view.
Let’s say the diagram had three spots: evidence, prior, conclusion. And let’s say the diagram is a visual representation of Bayes’ Law. (I don’t know how to draw a diagram like that, but for the sake of argument, let’s pretend.) Then you would be forced to take the outside view in order to come up with a prior. So that kind of diagram would actually help you do the right thing instead of the wrong thing (at least for some biases).
The point Czynski is making is that the diagram does not help us do that. Using the diagram, we mark an inference with a crooked line if we recognize that it is biased, and a straight line if we think it’s unbiased. So if we forget a given bias, the diagram does not help us remember to e.g. take the outside view.
Let’s say the diagram had three spots: evidence, prior, conclusion. And let’s say the diagram is a visual representation of Bayes’ Law. (I don’t know how to draw a diagram like that, but for the sake of argument, let’s pretend.) Then you would be forced to take the outside view in order to come up with a prior. So that kind of diagram would actually help you do the right thing instead of the wrong thing (at least for some biases).