“Will XX re-open their borders for inbound flights in December?”
This question resolves positive if at least five international (5) flights land into territorial XX between December 20 and December 25.
Quick Resolution. Make these markets resolve by mid-December. e.g. Morocco has closed borders until Dec 13. Will they re-open after that? If so, is the re-opening in both directions or just for inbound flights?
Probable Resolution. OK
Limited Hidden Information. This is the one I’m most uncertain about. For some countries, it’s unclear who exactly makes these decisions and how much hidden information there might be.
Sources of Disagreement and Interest. (1) Do repatriation flights count as re-opening? (2) Some countries (like Japan, Israel) only allow their own citizens back in, not international travellers. Others (like Morocco) don’t even let their citizens back.
Would love to see markets on when certain countries, like Morocco, Israel and Japan, will re-open their borders.
Essentially, the only reason they have ever closed borders is due to COVID. So the resolution would be straightforward.
These kind of markets would have high social value, e.g. travelers to those countries hedging.
just jotting this down for now. can elaborate on the five bullet points later this weekend.
“Will XX re-open their borders for inbound flights in December?”
This question resolves positive if at least five international (5) flights land into territorial XX between December 20 and December 25.
Quick Resolution. Make these markets resolve by mid-December. e.g. Morocco has closed borders until Dec 13. Will they re-open after that? If so, is the re-opening in both directions or just for inbound flights?
Probable Resolution. OK
Limited Hidden Information. This is the one I’m most uncertain about. For some countries, it’s unclear who exactly makes these decisions and how much hidden information there might be.
Sources of Disagreement and Interest. (1) Do repatriation flights count as re-opening? (2) Some countries (like Japan, Israel) only allow their own citizens back in, not international travellers. Others (like Morocco) don’t even let their citizens back.