It seems to me, on the other hand, that our theories have steadily improved over those millennia (in terms of objectively verifiable metrics like their ability to predict the results of increasingly esoteric experiments)
Yes, definitely.
and that this is evidence in favor of an eventual theory of everything.
I don’t see why it would be. Just because one one is able to march forward doesn’t mean that there is a destination. There are many possible alternatives. One is that we will keep making more accurate models (in a sense of making more detailed confirmed predictions in more areas) without ever ending anywhere. Another is that we will stall in our predictive abilities and stop making measurable progress, get stuck in a swamp, so to speak. This could happen, for example, if the computational power required to make better predictions grows exponentially with accuracy. Yet another alternative is that the act of making a better model actually creates new observations (in your language, changes the laws of the universe). After all, if you believe that we are agents embedded in the universe, then our actions change the universe, and who is to say that at some point they won’t change even what we think are the fundamental laws. There is an amusing novel about the universe protecting itself from overly inquisitive humans: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitely_Maybe_(novel)
How can it be possible to achieve even partial accuracy at predicting something that is purportedly impossible to model?
I don’t believe I have said anything of the sort. Of course we are able to build models. Without predictability life, let alone consciousness would be impossible, and that was one of my original statements. I don’t know what is it I said that gave you the impression that abandoning the concept of objective reality means we ought to lose predictability in any way.
Again:
But to postulate that no such theory exists is, I think, not only unsupported by the evidence, but actually contradicted by it—unless you’re interpreting the state of scientific progress quite differently than I am.*
I don’t postulate it. You postulate that there is something at the bottom. I’m simply saying that there is no need for this postulate, and, given what we see so far, every prediction of absolute knowledge in a given area turned out to be wrong, so, odds are, whether or not there is something at the bottom or not, at this point this postulate is harmful, rather than useful, and is wholly unnecessary. Our current experience suggests that it is all models, and if this ever changes, that would be a surprise.
Sadly, I don’t think we are converging at all.
Yes, definitely.
I don’t see why it would be. Just because one one is able to march forward doesn’t mean that there is a destination. There are many possible alternatives. One is that we will keep making more accurate models (in a sense of making more detailed confirmed predictions in more areas) without ever ending anywhere. Another is that we will stall in our predictive abilities and stop making measurable progress, get stuck in a swamp, so to speak. This could happen, for example, if the computational power required to make better predictions grows exponentially with accuracy. Yet another alternative is that the act of making a better model actually creates new observations (in your language, changes the laws of the universe). After all, if you believe that we are agents embedded in the universe, then our actions change the universe, and who is to say that at some point they won’t change even what we think are the fundamental laws. There is an amusing novel about the universe protecting itself from overly inquisitive humans: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitely_Maybe_(novel)
I don’t believe I have said anything of the sort. Of course we are able to build models. Without predictability life, let alone consciousness would be impossible, and that was one of my original statements. I don’t know what is it I said that gave you the impression that abandoning the concept of objective reality means we ought to lose predictability in any way.
Again:
I don’t postulate it. You postulate that there is something at the bottom. I’m simply saying that there is no need for this postulate, and, given what we see so far, every prediction of absolute knowledge in a given area turned out to be wrong, so, odds are, whether or not there is something at the bottom or not, at this point this postulate is harmful, rather than useful, and is wholly unnecessary. Our current experience suggests that it is all models, and if this ever changes, that would be a surprise.
That’s all.