Your observations about fear and the revenue and market share are information which have been visible to the entire world for months or years now. Why do you think you have inside information on that?
Other questions come to mind: How much will BABA be worth if the techlash continues and Xi decides to outlaw, say, not video games or tutoring this time but advertising? Or if Ma is unpersoned? How much would it be worth to you, as a foreigner, if Xi decides to ‘pull a Putin’ and invade Taiwan and similar sanctions trigger? etc.
I of course don’t have insider information. My stance is something close to Buffett’s advice “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. I interpret that as basically that markets tend to be overly reactionary and if you go by fundamentals representing the value of a stock you can potentially outperform the market in the long run. To your questions, yes disaster may really occur, but my opinion is that these risks are not sufficient to pass up the value here. I’ll also note that Charlie munger has been acquiring a substantial stake in BABA, which makes me more confident in its value at its current price.
Your observations about fear and the revenue and market share are information which have been visible to the entire world for months or years now. Why do you think you have inside information on that?
Other questions come to mind: How much will BABA be worth if the techlash continues and Xi decides to outlaw, say, not video games or tutoring this time but advertising? Or if Ma is unpersoned? How much would it be worth to you, as a foreigner, if Xi decides to ‘pull a Putin’ and invade Taiwan and similar sanctions trigger? etc.
I of course don’t have insider information. My stance is something close to Buffett’s advice “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. I interpret that as basically that markets tend to be overly reactionary and if you go by fundamentals representing the value of a stock you can potentially outperform the market in the long run. To your questions, yes disaster may really occur, but my opinion is that these risks are not sufficient to pass up the value here. I’ll also note that Charlie munger has been acquiring a substantial stake in BABA, which makes me more confident in its value at its current price.