It might be worth to point out, that Tesla has had way smaller budgets for R&D than other manufacturers like Ford and GM. So if Tesla holds an advantage, it implies that simply investing more money won’t let other manufacturers catch up.
Checking about 2 years after my initial post, it looks like $TSLA has fallen by more than 50%: it looks like the split-adjusted price in early April 2022 was around $330 or $340, and today it’s around $145.
Eyeballing the chart, it looks like it’s always been lower than that in the subsequent period, and was down to around $185 at the 12 month mark that was initially the target of the competition. That last bit is the bit that was least clear to me at the time: it seemed high probability that Tesla stock would have to fall at some point, but I expressed uncertainty about when because I thought there was a fair probability the market could stay irrational for a longer period.
Those seem like reasonable arguments.
It might be worth to point out, that Tesla has had way smaller budgets for R&D than other manufacturers like Ford and GM. So if Tesla holds an advantage, it implies that simply investing more money won’t let other manufacturers catch up.
Checking about 2 years after my initial post, it looks like $TSLA has fallen by more than 50%: it looks like the split-adjusted price in early April 2022 was around $330 or $340, and today it’s around $145.
Eyeballing the chart, it looks like it’s always been lower than that in the subsequent period, and was down to around $185 at the 12 month mark that was initially the target of the competition. That last bit is the bit that was least clear to me at the time: it seemed high probability that Tesla stock would have to fall at some point, but I expressed uncertainty about when because I thought there was a fair probability the market could stay irrational for a longer period.