I get the impression that a common belief on LW is that AI will continue to boom, and for that reason TSM might be undervalued. TSM has a PE ratio 0f 24.8 (source) and S&P 500 has one of 24.91 (source). With the AI boom, and general chip shortage, it doesn’t seem unlikely that TSM will be able to grow faster than S&P 500.
There is the black swan event of China attacking Taiwan. But the odds are only 10% of a conflict at metaculus, and a conflict might not lead to an extreme devaluation of TSM.
Their main competitor is usually considered to be Samsung, not Intel, and the difference in technology is debateable (source).
One option therefore is to invest in both Samsung and TSM, so regardless of which dominates in the future.
5G modems for iPhones seems like the type of thing the market would have already reacted to, but not sure.
I get the impression that a common belief on LW is that AI will continue to boom, and for that reason TSM might be undervalued. TSM has a PE ratio 0f 24.8 (source) and S&P 500 has one of 24.91 (source). With the AI boom, and general chip shortage, it doesn’t seem unlikely that TSM will be able to grow faster than S&P 500.
There is the black swan event of China attacking Taiwan. But the odds are only 10% of a conflict at metaculus, and a conflict might not lead to an extreme devaluation of TSM.
Their main competitor is usually considered to be Samsung, not Intel, and the difference in technology is debateable (source).
One option therefore is to invest in both Samsung and TSM, so regardless of which dominates in the future.
5G modems for iPhones seems like the type of thing the market would have already reacted to, but not sure.