The idea of a bias only holds if e.g. what Russell considered 100% of all possibilities only actually constituted 80% of the possibilities: then you might say that if we could sample all branches in which an observer looks back at argument, they’d see the argument right with less-than-80% probability, because in a part of the branches in which either of those three options come to pass there are no observers.
But while that is correct, the argument is that those are the only three options. Defined as such, a single counterexample is enough to declare the argument false. No one here is denying that extinction or civilisation collapse from nuclear war have been very real possibilities. But the road we care about here—the possible paths to survival—turned out to be wider than Russell imagined.
Yeah, Russell’s argument is ruled out by the evidence, yes.
The idea of a bias only holds if e.g. what Russell considered 100% of all possibilities only actually constituted 80% of the possibilities
I’m considering the view of a reader of Russell’s argument. If a reader thought “there is a 80% chance that Russell’s argument is correct”, how good of a belief would that be?
Because IRL, Yudkowsky assigns a nearly 100% chance to his doom theory, and I need to come up with the x such that I should believe “Yudkowsky’s doom argument has a x% chance of being correct”.
The idea of a bias only holds if e.g. what Russell considered 100% of all possibilities only actually constituted 80% of the possibilities: then you might say that if we could sample all branches in which an observer looks back at argument, they’d see the argument right with less-than-80% probability, because in a part of the branches in which either of those three options come to pass there are no observers.
But while that is correct, the argument is that those are the only three options. Defined as such, a single counterexample is enough to declare the argument false. No one here is denying that extinction or civilisation collapse from nuclear war have been very real possibilities. But the road we care about here—the possible paths to survival—turned out to be wider than Russell imagined.
Yeah, Russell’s argument is ruled out by the evidence, yes.
I’m considering the view of a reader of Russell’s argument. If a reader thought “there is a 80% chance that Russell’s argument is correct”, how good of a belief would that be?
Because IRL, Yudkowsky assigns a nearly 100% chance to his doom theory, and I need to come up with the x such that I should believe “Yudkowsky’s doom argument has a x% chance of being correct”.