These would be good ideas. I would remark that many people definitely do not understand what is happening when naively aggregating, or averaging together disparate distributions. Consider the simple example of the several Metaculus predictions for date of AGI, or any other future event. Consider the way that people tend to speak of the aggregated median dates. I would hazard most people using Metaculus, or referencing the bio-anchors paper, think the way the King does, and believe that the computed median dates are a good reflection of when things will probably happen.
These would be good ideas. I would remark that many people definitely do not understand what is happening when naively aggregating, or averaging together disparate distributions. Consider the simple example of the several Metaculus predictions for date of AGI, or any other future event. Consider the way that people tend to speak of the aggregated median dates. I would hazard most people using Metaculus, or referencing the bio-anchors paper, think the way the King does, and believe that the computed median dates are a good reflection of when things will probably happen.