This parable seems to prove too much, since it suggests the same action, “Prepare Now!” to any question of a possible disaster, not just “When will the next heavy rain occur?” What am I missing?
It seems implied that the chance of a drought here is 50%. If there is a 50% chance of basically any major disaster in the foreseeable future, the correct action is “Prepare Now!”.
Generally, you should hedge. Devote some resources toward planting and some resources toward drought preparedness, allocated according to your expectation. In the story, the King trust the advisors equally, and should allocate toward each possibility equally, plus or minus some discounting. Just don’t devote resources toward the fake “middle of the road” scenario that nobody actually expects.
If you are in a situation where you really can only do one thing or the other, with no capability to hedge, then I suppose it would depend on the details of the situation, but it would probably be best to “prepare now!” as you say.
The devil, as they say, is in the details.
But worst case scenario is to flip a coin—don’t be Buridan’s Ass and starve to death because you can’t decide which equidistant pile of food to eat.
This parable seems to prove too much, since it suggests the same action, “Prepare Now!” to any question of a possible disaster, not just “When will the next heavy rain occur?” What am I missing?
It seems implied that the chance of a drought here is 50%. If there is a 50% chance of basically any major disaster in the foreseeable future, the correct action is “Prepare Now!”.
Generally, you should hedge. Devote some resources toward planting and some resources toward drought preparedness, allocated according to your expectation. In the story, the King trust the advisors equally, and should allocate toward each possibility equally, plus or minus some discounting. Just don’t devote resources toward the fake “middle of the road” scenario that nobody actually expects.
If you are in a situation where you really can only do one thing or the other, with no capability to hedge, then I suppose it would depend on the details of the situation, but it would probably be best to “prepare now!” as you say.
The devil, as they say, is in the details. But worst case scenario is to flip a coin—don’t be Buridan’s Ass and starve to death because you can’t decide which equidistant pile of food to eat.