With forecasters from both sides given equal amounts of information, these institutions might not even reliably beat the Metaculus community. If one is such a great forecaster then they can forecast that jobs like this might not be, among other things, that fulfilling.
I don’t know if we’ve gotten to the point where they can fool the professionals at not getting fooled
Quite a few professionals (not at not getting fooled) still believe in a roughly 0% probability of a certain bio-related accident a couple three years ago thanks in large part to a spun story. Maybe the forecasters at the above places know better but none of the entities who might act on that information are necessarily incentivized to push for regulation as a result. So it’s not clear it would matter if most forecasters know AI is probably responsible for some murky disaster while the public believes humans are responsible.
With forecasters from both sides given equal amounts of information, these institutions might not even reliably beat the Metaculus community. If one is such a great forecaster then they can forecast that jobs like this might not be, among other things, that fulfilling.
Quite a few professionals (not at not getting fooled) still believe in a roughly 0% probability of a certain bio-related accident a couple three years ago thanks in large part to a spun story. Maybe the forecasters at the above places know better but none of the entities who might act on that information are necessarily incentivized to push for regulation as a result. So it’s not clear it would matter if most forecasters know AI is probably responsible for some murky disaster while the public believes humans are responsible.