Well, you got me. I thought perhaps you were seeing things like “Islam is a violent religion” and inferring too much into it. But most if not all of those examples seem inexcusable if genuinely held. Although the original point stand that the person subscribing to the group might be doing so in response to more mundane writings, and they are not endorsing the more extreme writing, which may even have been done for shock value. I don’t know.
Regarding the other point, it’s not quite that Occam’s razor is wrong, but rather having to do with ignorance of a complex system. “The simplest explanation is probably correct” is true when we have a sufficient number of facts in front of us to make inference. In most things in life this is the case, but human behaviour is complex enough to make that not generally true. I can make Occam’s razor predictions about the underlying reason for my wife doing something, and maybe my closest friends or siblings. But not others—their mental states are too complex, too dependent on things I don’t have information on.
Anyway sorry to distract from your original question. I just wish there was a name and some literature regarding this bias because it seems relevant and important.
“The simplest explanation is probably correct” is true when we have a sufficient number of facts in front of us to make inference. In most things in life this is the case, but human behaviour is complex enough to make that not generally true.
However, I would say that even when dealing with high complexity and uncertainty, the simplest explanation is still usually the most probable hypothosis, even if it has <50% probability.
Well, you got me. I thought perhaps you were seeing things like “Islam is a violent religion” and inferring too much into it. But most if not all of those examples seem inexcusable if genuinely held. Although the original point stand that the person subscribing to the group might be doing so in response to more mundane writings, and they are not endorsing the more extreme writing, which may even have been done for shock value. I don’t know.
Regarding the other point, it’s not quite that Occam’s razor is wrong, but rather having to do with ignorance of a complex system. “The simplest explanation is probably correct” is true when we have a sufficient number of facts in front of us to make inference. In most things in life this is the case, but human behaviour is complex enough to make that not generally true. I can make Occam’s razor predictions about the underlying reason for my wife doing something, and maybe my closest friends or siblings. But not others—their mental states are too complex, too dependent on things I don’t have information on.
Anyway sorry to distract from your original question. I just wish there was a name and some literature regarding this bias because it seems relevant and important.
However, I would say that even when dealing with high complexity and uncertainty, the simplest explanation is still usually the most probable hypothosis, even if it has <50% probability.