then we should not expect moore’s law to end with brains still having a non-trivial thermodynamic efficiency advantage over digital computers. Except that is exactly what is happening. TSMC is approaching the limits of circuit miniaturization, and it is increasing obvious that fully closing the (now not so large) gap with the brain will require more directly mimicking it through neuromorphic computing[2].
This is a clear error.
There is no particular reason to expect TSMC to taper off at a point anywhere near the theoretical limits.
A closely analogous situation is that the speed of passenger planes has tapered off. And the theoretical limit (ignoring exotic warp drives) is light speed.
But in practice, planes are limited by the energy density of jet fuel, economics, regulations against flying nuclear reactors, atmospheric drag etc.
This isn’t to say that no spaceship could ever go at 90% light speed. Just that we would need a radically different approach to do that, and we don’t yet have that tech.
So yes, TSMC could be running out of steam. Or not. The death of moores law has been proclaimed on a regular basis since it existed.
“Taiwanese engineers don’t yet have the tech to do X” doesn’t imply that X is physically impossible.
This is a clear error.
There is no particular reason to expect TSMC to taper off at a point anywhere near the theoretical limits.
A closely analogous situation is that the speed of passenger planes has tapered off. And the theoretical limit (ignoring exotic warp drives) is light speed.
But in practice, planes are limited by the energy density of jet fuel, economics, regulations against flying nuclear reactors, atmospheric drag etc.
This isn’t to say that no spaceship could ever go at 90% light speed. Just that we would need a radically different approach to do that, and we don’t yet have that tech.
So yes, TSMC could be running out of steam. Or not. The death of moores law has been proclaimed on a regular basis since it existed.
“Taiwanese engineers don’t yet have the tech to do X” doesn’t imply that X is physically impossible.