My first thought is that with the coronavirus, our risk tolerance is much lower, and even if the data point applied to the coronavirus as well, 1⁄16 still isn’t great. So if it makes sense to take the precautions of washing your hands after touching surfaces that others have touched, it probably also makes sense to avoid kissing people.
My second thought is that when you’re kissing people it’s probably going to be people you know personally and trust to be asymptomatic. But people can have the disease and be asymptomatic for weeks, so I’m not sure how much that helps.
Also right. Do you have any good pointers re: how much asymptomatic transfer there is? I’ve seen two things of note:
CDC director comment:
In other words, Redfield said that an infected person not showing symptoms could still transmit the virus to someone else based on information from his colleagues in China.
Part of me is surprised about how little evidence there is of asymptomatic transfer. Either it’s not frequent, evidence is hard to gather, it’s not worth mentioning/publishing after a certain point, something else?
Do you have any good pointers re: how much asymptomatic transfer there is?
Not really, sorry. The source that comes to my mind is the CDC (“Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure”)but I also just generally recall various sources/people talking about it.
Interesting to hear that about the common cold.
My first thought is that with the coronavirus, our risk tolerance is much lower, and even if the data point applied to the coronavirus as well, 1⁄16 still isn’t great. So if it makes sense to take the precautions of washing your hands after touching surfaces that others have touched, it probably also makes sense to avoid kissing people.
My second thought is that when you’re kissing people it’s probably going to be people you know personally and trust to be asymptomatic. But people can have the disease and be asymptomatic for weeks, so I’m not sure how much that helps.
and
Yep, sounds right. :)
Also right. Do you have any good pointers re: how much asymptomatic transfer there is? I’ve seen two things of note:
CDC director comment:
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-13-20-intl-hnk/h_8d935a8b6df385aba0cbfdb30cd3aeac
Two cases mentioned here: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission-chinese-woman-relatives-2020-2
Part of me is surprised about how little evidence there is of asymptomatic transfer. Either it’s not frequent, evidence is hard to gather, it’s not worth mentioning/publishing after a certain point, something else?
Not really, sorry. The source that comes to my mind is the CDC (“Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure”) but I also just generally recall various sources/people talking about it.
Asymptomatic transfer pointer. Saw in an ea Fb group claims ~ 15% household asymptomatic household transfer rate https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1?fbclid=IwAR14euEgPp3UvxBI2zSk-ZPCbbBzEV8JbyVVofxdgwqJDkRBoVKzREJdM4w