Meta note: the costs of being isolated are roughly linear in how long you’re isolated, but the costs of being in public are exponential in the regime where your chance of getting infected is small and proportional to the number of people who are infected. As a result, you’d rather self-isolate one week early than one week late. Given the model uncertainty in any modelling attempt like this, this means you probably want to be a bit more paranoid than the model suggests.
Meta note: the costs of being isolated are roughly linear in how long you’re isolated, but the costs of being in public are exponential in the regime where your chance of getting infected is small and proportional to the number of people who are infected. As a result, you’d rather self-isolate one week early than one week late. Given the model uncertainty in any modelling attempt like this, this means you probably want to be a bit more paranoid than the model suggests.