I agree that there is some non-empirical cognitive work to be done in choosing how to weight different reference classes. How much do we weight the history of Ponzi Pyramid Inc, the history of Bernie Bankman, the history of the stock market, and the history of apparently-very-lucrative deals? This is all useful work to do to estimate the risk of investing in PP Inc.
However, the mere existence of other possible reference classes is sufficient to defeat the Spokesperson’s argument, because it shows that his arguments lead to a contradiction.
I agree that there is some non-empirical cognitive work to be done in choosing how to weight different reference classes. How much do we weight the history of Ponzi Pyramid Inc, the history of Bernie Bankman, the history of the stock market, and the history of apparently-very-lucrative deals? This is all useful work to do to estimate the risk of investing in PP Inc.
However, the mere existence of other possible reference classes is sufficient to defeat the Spokesperson’s argument, because it shows that his arguments lead to a contradiction.