I mean, the Spokesperson is being dumb, the Scientist is being confused. Most AI researchers aren’t even being Scientists, they have different theoretical models than EY. But some of them don’t immediately discount the Spokesperson’s false-empiricism argument publicly, much like the Scientist tries not to. I think the latter pattern is what has annoyed EY and what he writes against here.
However, a large number of current AI experts do recently seem to be boldly claiming that LLMs will never be sufficient for even AGI, not to mention ASI. So maybe it’s also aimed at them a bit.
But some of them don’t immediately discount the Spokesperson’s false-empiricism argument publicly
Most likely as a part of the usual arguments-as-soldiers political dynamic.
I do think that there’s an actual argument to be made that we have much less empirical evidence regarding AIs compared to Ponzis, and plently of people on both sides of this debate are far too overconfident in their grand theories, EY very much included.
I mean, the Spokesperson is being dumb, the Scientist is being confused. Most AI researchers aren’t even being Scientists, they have different theoretical models than EY. But some of them don’t immediately discount the Spokesperson’s false-empiricism argument publicly, much like the Scientist tries not to. I think the latter pattern is what has annoyed EY and what he writes against here.
However, a large number of current AI experts do recently seem to be boldly claiming that LLMs will never be sufficient for even AGI, not to mention ASI. So maybe it’s also aimed at them a bit.
Most likely as a part of the usual arguments-as-soldiers political dynamic.
I do think that there’s an actual argument to be made that we have much less empirical evidence regarding AIs compared to Ponzis, and plently of people on both sides of this debate are far too overconfident in their grand theories, EY very much included.