Yeah, one has to correct, when possible, for likelihood of observing a particular part of the lifetime of the trend. Though absent any further information our probability distribution should arguably be even. Which does suggest there is indeed a sort of “straight rule” of induction when extrapolating trends, as the scientist in the dialogue suspected. It is just that it serves as a weak prior that is easily changed by additional information.
Yeah, one has to correct, when possible, for likelihood of observing a particular part of the lifetime of the trend. Though absent any further information our probability distribution should arguably be even. Which does suggest there is indeed a sort of “straight rule” of induction when extrapolating trends, as the scientist in the dialogue suspected. It is just that it serves as a weak prior that is easily changed by additional information.