ISTM the problem of Boltzmann brains is irrelevant to the 50%-ers. Presumably, the 50%-ers are rational—e.g., willing to update on statistical studies significant at p=0.05. So they don’t object to the statistics of the situation; they’re objecting to the concept of “creating a billion of you”, such that you don’t know which one you are. If you had offered to roll a billion-sided die to determine their fate (check your local tabletop-gaming store), there would be no disagreement.
Of course, this problem of identity and continuity has been hashed out on OB/LW before. But the Boltzmann-brain hypothesis doesn’t require more than one of you—just a lot of other people, something the 50%-ers have no philosophical problem with. It’s a challenge for a solipsist, not a 50%-er.
ISTM the problem of Boltzmann brains is irrelevant to the 50%-ers. Presumably, the 50%-ers are rational—e.g., willing to update on statistical studies significant at p=0.05. So they don’t object to the statistics of the situation; they’re objecting to the concept of “creating a billion of you”, such that you don’t know which one you are. If you had offered to roll a billion-sided die to determine their fate (check your local tabletop-gaming store), there would be no disagreement.
Of course, this problem of identity and continuity has been hashed out on OB/LW before. But the Boltzmann-brain hypothesis doesn’t require more than one of you—just a lot of other people, something the 50%-ers have no philosophical problem with. It’s a challenge for a solipsist, not a 50%-er.