What do the probability distributions listed below the claims mean specifically?
it’s a 95% confidence interval for where the actual probability lies.
I think of it like “95% confidence interval of where the mean of Elizabeth’s estimate would land after 10 hours of further research”.
I’ve found personally this format is often useful when giving quick probability estimates. Precision is costly.
What do the probability distributions listed below the claims mean specifically?
it’s a 95% confidence interval for where the actual probability lies.
I think of it like “95% confidence interval of where the mean of Elizabeth’s estimate would land after 10 hours of further research”.
I’ve found personally this format is often useful when giving quick probability estimates. Precision is costly.