Upvoted for this link. I wish I had known this term back in the Amanda Knox days—this fallacy (or rather, the reverse of it—failing to take into account conditional dependence of a priori independent events) is a version of the main probability-theoretic error of that case.
Upvoted for this link. I wish I had known this term back in the Amanda Knox days—this fallacy (or rather, the reverse of it—failing to take into account conditional dependence of a priori independent events) is a version of the main probability-theoretic error of that case.
This fallacy may also explain why people tend to assign 50% percent probability to the odds of the second child being a boy in the classic puzzle.