Except that we are all part of this “doomed civilization”, and if it collapses in civil war, nuclear apocalypse or even just a gigantic economic collapse, being at poolside won’t keep you safe. So we have to save it, or to fix it. Now you can say that building a friendly AI is a much more efficient way of saving it/fixing it that getting involved in politics. That’s something I can fully respect. But saying that you don’t care or don’t want to try is irresponsible.
For myself, saving it is very close to the thing I’ve to protect so I won’t skip any single way I have under my own power of trying to save it : from understanding the world better to raising the sanity waterline around me to giving to charity to using train or walking instead of having a car to getting involve in politics even if it’s “dirty”. Because what matter is to win.
I’m very open to any argument about “this would be a more efficient way to save it” that would make me stronger in defending what I’ve to protect, but “don’t try to save it, have fun and if everything collapse too bad” is not acceptable, it doesn’t help my terminal values.
Except that we are all part of this “doomed civilization”, and if it collapses in civil war, nuclear apocalypse or even just a gigantic economic collapse, being at poolside won’t keep you fixingsafe. So we have to save it, or to fix it.
His argument is that the modern world was doomed before we where born, there is nothing really one can do to reform or save it. There can be no “have to” when there is a fairly strong possibility that nothing can be done, because incentives, biases and plain ignorance are aligned in such a way that effective positive action will bring overwhelming response against it. Anyone who thinks voting will solve anything has quite a bit of a way to go in my mind.
When civil war/nuclear apocalypse/gigantic economic collapse comes Roissy will still have a tan when it happens. The activist won’t.
Now you can say that building a friendly AI is a much more efficient way of saving it/fixing it that getting involved in politics. That’s something I can fully respect. But saying that you don’t care or don’t want to try is irresponsible.
Actually I do think it is by far the most productive course of action, and I do support that effort as much as I can. But should that in itself raise some alarm bells in our minds? Getting Friendly AI right before it is too late is such long shot by most estimates. If contributing to this is indeed the best option for maximising desirable mid term future states of the universe for an individual or small group, we should pause to think about just how little certainty and influence a person has on a system composed of 7 billion people, their machines and the natural envrionment
Because what matter is to win.
For some games the only way to win is not to play. I am quite certain the average LWer will do the world much more good if he tries to promote rational thinking and tries, as best as he can, to detached and disinvest himself both emotionally and resource-wise from daily politics and ideology.
I am not saying the tiny influence a person has on the world automatically dosen’t matter if a huge payoff is at all possible. I am saying that people are over-invested into politics, far beyond the point of diminishing returns due to our brains and our society tricking us into believing we matter far more in the process of government than we actually do. Remember the opportunity cost of involvement in politics!
I partially endorse the poolside getting a tan recommendation, because I’m actually convinced that taking a swim in the pool each morning for 30 minutes rather than reading political commentary will give the world more utility, because of your improved well being and productivity in other endeavours. Its likley not the optimal use of your time, but don’t let the perfect become the enemy of the good.
Yes, and there are endless crackpots who believe themselves to be doing just that. Someone who is genuinely out to save the world will (unfortunately) share this same feature with crackpots; they will have to distinguish themselves from crackpots in other ways.
I am saying that people are over-invested into politics, far beyond the point of diminishing returns
If folks are over-invested into politics, there are two ways of making the situation more optimal.
Reduce investment into politics. This is Roissy’s recommendation. This option does not directly affect political issues, but it does free up effort/resources to be spent on more productive things (science, business, personal enjoyment etc.)
Raise the social payoff of investment into politics. This entails promoting reform and change in political processes so as to make them more deliberative, less ideological, more conducive to efficient outcomes etc. This option yields a direct payoff by improving political outcomes.
I’m not saying that (2) is easy. But a site having as mission statement “refining the art of human rationality” should definitely take an interest in the issue, since so much of human deliberation occurs in the public sphere.
In the absence of research into the issue of good governance and the conditions that affect change of government by a order of magnitude better than what is currently available, I would say promoting point two is in practice harmful advice.
Strategy 1. has a guaranteed pay-off but requires an individual to admit to himself that investment so far has been wasted. Strategy 2. can be used to rationalize any escalation of investment and past investment, a very comforting idea.
I’m not saying that (2) is easy. But a site having as mission statement “refining the art of human rationality” should definitely take an interest in the issue, since so much of human deliberation occurs in the public sphere.
But I wish to stress something, people who disinvest from politics can invest, if they really want to improve governance at any cost, into quality rationalist research that is sorely lacking. In fact I claim that a community comprised exclusively of involved and politically active citizens can in fact never come up with what would amount to “useful social science” on certain issues (say the effect of governance).
I would thus argue that a site dedicated to “the refinement of human rationality” has not only thrived because of the no mind killer rule, it might if it put its resources to it radically improve the quality of government precisely by dis-investing emotionally and resource wise from politics to partially mitigate the perverse incentives involved in the endeavour.
You do not consider “quality rationalist research” into good governance to fall under political involvement? Yes, it is very different than day-to-day involvement into political practice, ideology etc. But then again, I have not seen the latter advocated much in this thread, or at all on LW.
I for one am quite wary of any “escalation of investment”, expressly because affecting any stable system (natural or social) is unfeasible without a thorough, rational understanding of its structure and leverage points. And so most effort into political activism is indeed “wasted”[1]. But given that so many folks apparently are emotionally invested into changing governance in some way, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with helping such folks achieve desirable outcomes.
[1] I am obviously disregarding exceptional cases such as the “Arab Spring” uprisings; but even the Tea Party has had negligible effects (e.g. the leading R nominations for the 2012 election are widely seen as mediocre, and TP candidates are not faring well), and I expect little better from the ‘Occupy’ effort given how unfocused it is.
I partially endorse the poolside getting a tan recommendation, because I’m actually convinced that
Allow me a small nitpick in a great commentary: I would advise against the tan due to the dangers of skin cancer and skin damage. Tanning has become a cultural obsession in the west, not so much in asian countries but is generally unhealthy for white skin. You only should get enough sun to produce the necessary Vitamin D, other than that, avoid it! Go for the swim though, it is healthy!
There can be no “have to” when there is a fairly strong possibility that nothing can be done, because incentives, biases and plain ignorance are aligned in such a way that effective positive action will bring overwhelming response against it. Anyone who thinks voting will solve anything has quite a bit of a way to go in my mind.
Wow, my thoughts, I’m surprised to read them here. ;)
For some games the only way to win is not to play. I am quite certain the average LWer will do the world much more good if he tries to promote rational thinking and tries as best as he can do detached and disinvest himself emotional and resource wise from daily politics and ideology.
Surrendering to the barbarians are we.
To paraphrase Roissy, feel free trying to save this doomed civilization, I’ll be poolside getting a tan.
Except that we are all part of this “doomed civilization”, and if it collapses in civil war, nuclear apocalypse or even just a gigantic economic collapse, being at poolside won’t keep you safe. So we have to save it, or to fix it. Now you can say that building a friendly AI is a much more efficient way of saving it/fixing it that getting involved in politics. That’s something I can fully respect. But saying that you don’t care or don’t want to try is irresponsible.
For myself, saving it is very close to the thing I’ve to protect so I won’t skip any single way I have under my own power of trying to save it : from understanding the world better to raising the sanity waterline around me to giving to charity to using train or walking instead of having a car to getting involve in politics even if it’s “dirty”. Because what matter is to win.
I’m very open to any argument about “this would be a more efficient way to save it” that would make me stronger in defending what I’ve to protect, but “don’t try to save it, have fun and if everything collapse too bad” is not acceptable, it doesn’t help my terminal values.
His argument is that the modern world was doomed before we where born, there is nothing really one can do to reform or save it. There can be no “have to” when there is a fairly strong possibility that nothing can be done, because incentives, biases and plain ignorance are aligned in such a way that effective positive action will bring overwhelming response against it. Anyone who thinks voting will solve anything has quite a bit of a way to go in my mind.
When civil war/nuclear apocalypse/gigantic economic collapse comes Roissy will still have a tan when it happens. The activist won’t.
Actually I do think it is by far the most productive course of action, and I do support that effort as much as I can. But should that in itself raise some alarm bells in our minds? Getting Friendly AI right before it is too late is such long shot by most estimates. If contributing to this is indeed the best option for maximising desirable mid term future states of the universe for an individual or small group, we should pause to think about just how little certainty and influence a person has on a system composed of 7 billion people, their machines and the natural envrionment
For some games the only way to win is not to play. I am quite certain the average LWer will do the world much more good if he tries to promote rational thinking and tries, as best as he can, to detached and disinvest himself both emotionally and resource-wise from daily politics and ideology.
I am not saying the tiny influence a person has on the world automatically dosen’t matter if a huge payoff is at all possible. I am saying that people are over-invested into politics, far beyond the point of diminishing returns due to our brains and our society tricking us into believing we matter far more in the process of government than we actually do. Remember the opportunity cost of involvement in politics!
I partially endorse the poolside getting a tan recommendation, because I’m actually convinced that taking a swim in the pool each morning for 30 minutes rather than reading political commentary will give the world more utility, because of your improved well being and productivity in other endeavours. Its likley not the optimal use of your time, but don’t let the perfect become the enemy of the good.
This seems suspiciously convenient for someone who already prefers poolside tanning to saving the modern world.
The idea that you actually can save the modern world is also convenient for people with a certain self-perception.
Yes, and there are endless crackpots who believe themselves to be doing just that. Someone who is genuinely out to save the world will (unfortunately) share this same feature with crackpots; they will have to distinguish themselves from crackpots in other ways.
If folks are over-invested into politics, there are two ways of making the situation more optimal.
Reduce investment into politics. This is Roissy’s recommendation. This option does not directly affect political issues, but it does free up effort/resources to be spent on more productive things (science, business, personal enjoyment etc.)
Raise the social payoff of investment into politics. This entails promoting reform and change in political processes so as to make them more deliberative, less ideological, more conducive to efficient outcomes etc. This option yields a direct payoff by improving political outcomes.
I’m not saying that (2) is easy. But a site having as mission statement “refining the art of human rationality” should definitely take an interest in the issue, since so much of human deliberation occurs in the public sphere.
In the absence of research into the issue of good governance and the conditions that affect change of government by a order of magnitude better than what is currently available, I would say promoting point two is in practice harmful advice.
Strategy 1. has a guaranteed pay-off but requires an individual to admit to himself that investment so far has been wasted. Strategy 2. can be used to rationalize any escalation of investment and past investment, a very comforting idea.
But I wish to stress something, people who disinvest from politics can invest, if they really want to improve governance at any cost, into quality rationalist research that is sorely lacking. In fact I claim that a community comprised exclusively of involved and politically active citizens can in fact never come up with what would amount to “useful social science” on certain issues (say the effect of governance).
I would thus argue that a site dedicated to “the refinement of human rationality” has not only thrived because of the no mind killer rule, it might if it put its resources to it radically improve the quality of government precisely by dis-investing emotionally and resource wise from politics to partially mitigate the perverse incentives involved in the endeavour.
You do not consider “quality rationalist research” into good governance to fall under political involvement? Yes, it is very different than day-to-day involvement into political practice, ideology etc. But then again, I have not seen the latter advocated much in this thread, or at all on LW.
I for one am quite wary of any “escalation of investment”, expressly because affecting any stable system (natural or social) is unfeasible without a thorough, rational understanding of its structure and leverage points. And so most effort into political activism is indeed “wasted”[1]. But given that so many folks apparently are emotionally invested into changing governance in some way, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with helping such folks achieve desirable outcomes.
[1] I am obviously disregarding exceptional cases such as the “Arab Spring” uprisings; but even the Tea Party has had negligible effects (e.g. the leading R nominations for the 2012 election are widely seen as mediocre, and TP candidates are not faring well), and I expect little better from the ‘Occupy’ effort given how unfocused it is.
Allow me a small nitpick in a great commentary: I would advise against the tan due to the dangers of skin cancer and skin damage. Tanning has become a cultural obsession in the west, not so much in asian countries but is generally unhealthy for white skin. You only should get enough sun to produce the necessary Vitamin D, other than that, avoid it! Go for the swim though, it is healthy!
Wow, my thoughts, I’m surprised to read them here. ;)
Agreed!