A decision was wise, even
though it led to disastrous consequences, if the evidence at hand indicated it was the
best one to make; and a decision was foolish, even though it led to the happiest possible
consequences, if it was unreasonable to expect those consequences.
The problem with that quote is that human biases often go the other way, i.e., we’d rather blame bad consequences on bad luck then admit we made a bad decision.
I tried to track this down, and this seems to be Jaynes’s paraphrase of Herodotus; pg 2 of “Bayesian Methods: General Background”. (I looked through one translation, http://classics.mit.edu/Herodotus/history.mb.txt , and was unable to locate it.)
I got it out of “Data Analysis A Bayesian Tutorial” pg 4 where it is attributed to Herodotus
Around 500 BC, Herodotus said much the same thing: ‘A decision was wise, even
though it led to disastrous consequences, if the evidence at hand indicated it was the
best one to make; and a decision was foolish, even though it led to the happiest possible
consequences, if it was unreasonable to expect those consequences.’
After some more searching and a pointer on Straight Dope, I think I’ve found it in Book 7 of the Histories when Artabanus is trying to dissuade Xerxes from launching his ill-fated war against the Greeks, where it is, as one would expect from Jaynes’s paraphrase, different:
“1 So do not plan to run the risk of any such danger when there is no need for it. Listen to me instead: for now dismiss this assembly; consider the matter by yourself and, whenever you so please, declare what seems best to you. 2 A well-laid plan is always to my mind most profitable; even if it is thwarted later, the plan was no less good, and it is only chance that has
baffled the design; but if fortune favor one who has planned poorly, then he has gotten only a prize of chance, and his plan was no less bad.”
Or in another translation:
“Think then no more of incurring so great a danger when no need presses, but follow the advice I tender. Break up this meeting, and when thou hast well considered the matter with thyself, and settled what thou wilt do, declare to us thy resolve. I know not of aught in the world that so profits a man as taking good counsel with himself; for even if things fall out against one’s hopes, still one has counselled well, though fortune has made the counsel of none effect: whereas if a man counsels ill and luck follows, he has gotten a windfall, but his counsel is none the less silly.”
-- Herodotus
The problem with that quote is that human biases often go the other way, i.e., we’d rather blame bad consequences on bad luck then admit we made a bad decision.
The quote may still have some use when applied to humans other than oneself.
I tried to track this down, and this seems to be Jaynes’s paraphrase of Herodotus; pg 2 of “Bayesian Methods: General Background”. (I looked through one translation, http://classics.mit.edu/Herodotus/history.mb.txt , and was unable to locate it.)
I got it out of “Data Analysis A Bayesian Tutorial” pg 4 where it is attributed to Herodotus
After some more searching and a pointer on Straight Dope, I think I’ve found it in Book 7 of the Histories when Artabanus is trying to dissuade Xerxes from launching his ill-fated war against the Greeks, where it is, as one would expect from Jaynes’s paraphrase, different:
Or in another translation: