I like this quote, myself. It reminds me that when you’re being affected by a difficult-to-correct-for cognitive bias, what “feels” correct is wrong, and the correct answer doesn’t feel right. Quoting Eliezer:
So there is a fairly reliable way to fix the planning fallacy, if you’re doing something broadly similar to a reference class of previous projects. Just ask how long similar projects have taken in the past, without considering any of the special properties of this project. Better yet, ask an experienced outsider how long similar projects have taken.
You’ll get back an answer that sounds hideously long, and clearly reflects no understanding of the special reasons why this particular task will take less time. This answer is true. Deal with it.
Inexact sounds about right. There is certainly a point behind the quote (so I didn’t downvote and can see why you would quote it) but perhaps it is a little overstated or slightly missing the problem of using the gut at the right time.
.
I like this quote, myself. It reminds me that when you’re being affected by a difficult-to-correct-for cognitive bias, what “feels” correct is wrong, and the correct answer doesn’t feel right. Quoting Eliezer:
Inexact sounds about right. There is certainly a point behind the quote (so I didn’t downvote and can see why you would quote it) but perhaps it is a little overstated or slightly missing the problem of using the gut at the right time.