If the models depend on factors which cannot be reliably forecast (e.g. “PDO, AMO, and solar cycles” above), then it is a bit of a fake explanation and you can’t use them as reliable inputs to a forecast model. Would it be it reasonable to use Akasofu’s sine-wave extrapolation of the multi-decadal oscillation in light of the prior two observed “cycles” ?
Also the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices are measures of the response of the system, and treating them as a driver of the system smuggles some of the dependent response variables into the supposedly independent predictor variables.
If the models depend on factors which cannot be reliably forecast (e.g. “PDO, AMO, and solar cycles” above), then it is a bit of a fake explanation and you can’t use them as reliable inputs to a forecast model. Would it be it reasonable to use Akasofu’s sine-wave extrapolation of the multi-decadal oscillation in light of the prior two observed “cycles” ?
Also the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices are measures of the response of the system, and treating them as a driver of the system smuggles some of the dependent response variables into the supposedly independent predictor variables.