You’re good at listing biases. I’m good at creating mental models of other people from limited information.
Absent statistical information, you should hold it very plausible that I am under the effect of biases, as I’m certainly not giving you enough data to update to the point where you should consider me good at anticipating people’s actions and thoughts.
However, obtaining enough written and statistical evidence to allow you to update to the same level of belief that I hold (I would appropriately update as well), is far too difficult considering the time spans between predictions, their nature of requiring my engagement in the moment, etc.
My weak evidence is that, having subscribed to sl4 several years ago, following OB and now LW on at least a monthly basis, and having read and incorporated much of what is written here into my own practices, I still have this belief, and feel that it is very unlikely to be a wrong belief. Or perhaps you’re overestimating my “good” qualifier and we’re closer than we think.
At any rate, I apologize for stating a belief that I am unwilling to provide strong evidence to support.
I’d update on you saying “I have good statistical evidence drawn based on written, dated notes” even if you didn’t show me the evidence.
EDIT: to make this point clearer—I would update more strongly on your assurances if I could think of another likely mechanism than the one I propose by which one could gain confidence in the superiority of one’s mind-reading skills.
It’s not that sort of prediction, I don’t think. It’s more social and inferential, based on past and current events, and rarely works as well for the future (more than a few hours), though it does to some degree.
I don’t carry a notebook with me, and oftentimes this is used in a highly social environment, so writing it down would not be appropriate or easy to do. I consider it a form of pattern matching, where I determine the thoughts and feelings of the other person through my knowledge of them and by using real-time interaction, body language, etc.
It’s rapid correlation of environmental cues and developed mental models. Examples of its use: “What does it mean that they stopped talking? What does that slight glance to the left mean? What does it mean that they used that particular word? Why didn’t they take action X? Why did they take action Y, but Z didn’t come of it?”
I think the phrase “mind reading” is a bit much. Note the original context: “ascribing intent.” I’m just using tells that I’ve learned over time to discern what someone else is thinking or feeling, with my own feeling as to how likely it is that I’m correct (internal, subjective bayesometer?). I’ve learned to trust it over time because it’s been so useful and accurate.
Also note that the training period, where I initially develop the mental model, tends to consist of things like asking the other person, “What do you mean?” and then remembering their answer when a similar event comes around again. :-P
ETA: I think my pattern matching and memory skills are also what give me my wicked déjà vu. And it’s likely more normal people would call this “social skills,” though I seem to lack such innate capability.
You’re good at listing biases. I’m good at creating mental models of other people from limited information.
Absent statistical information, you should hold it very plausible that I am under the effect of biases, as I’m certainly not giving you enough data to update to the point where you should consider me good at anticipating people’s actions and thoughts.
However, obtaining enough written and statistical evidence to allow you to update to the same level of belief that I hold (I would appropriately update as well), is far too difficult considering the time spans between predictions, their nature of requiring my engagement in the moment, etc.
My weak evidence is that, having subscribed to sl4 several years ago, following OB and now LW on at least a monthly basis, and having read and incorporated much of what is written here into my own practices, I still have this belief, and feel that it is very unlikely to be a wrong belief. Or perhaps you’re overestimating my “good” qualifier and we’re closer than we think.
At any rate, I apologize for stating a belief that I am unwilling to provide strong evidence to support.
I’d update on you saying “I have good statistical evidence drawn based on written, dated notes” even if you didn’t show me the evidence.
EDIT: to make this point clearer—I would update more strongly on your assurances if I could think of another likely mechanism than the one I propose by which one could gain confidence in the superiority of one’s mind-reading skills.
It’s not that sort of prediction, I don’t think. It’s more social and inferential, based on past and current events, and rarely works as well for the future (more than a few hours), though it does to some degree.
I don’t carry a notebook with me, and oftentimes this is used in a highly social environment, so writing it down would not be appropriate or easy to do. I consider it a form of pattern matching, where I determine the thoughts and feelings of the other person through my knowledge of them and by using real-time interaction, body language, etc.
It’s rapid correlation of environmental cues and developed mental models. Examples of its use: “What does it mean that they stopped talking? What does that slight glance to the left mean? What does it mean that they used that particular word? Why didn’t they take action X? Why did they take action Y, but Z didn’t come of it?”
I think the phrase “mind reading” is a bit much. Note the original context: “ascribing intent.” I’m just using tells that I’ve learned over time to discern what someone else is thinking or feeling, with my own feeling as to how likely it is that I’m correct (internal, subjective bayesometer?). I’ve learned to trust it over time because it’s been so useful and accurate.
Also note that the training period, where I initially develop the mental model, tends to consist of things like asking the other person, “What do you mean?” and then remembering their answer when a similar event comes around again. :-P
ETA: I think my pattern matching and memory skills are also what give me my wicked déjà vu. And it’s likely more normal people would call this “social skills,” though I seem to lack such innate capability.