homung suggests that there may be immutable laws of the universe that mean there are only a finite number of apocalyptic technologies. Note that even if the probability of such technological limits is small, in order for Phil’s argument to work, either that probability would have to be infinitesimal, or some of the doomsday devices have to continue to be threatening after the various attack/defense strategies reach a very mature level of development. All of the probabilities look finite to me.
homung suggests that there may be immutable laws of the universe that mean there are only a finite number of apocalyptic technologies. Note that even if the probability of such technological limits is small, in order for Phil’s argument to work, either that probability would have to be infinitesimal, or some of the doomsday devices have to continue to be threatening after the various attack/defense strategies reach a very mature level of development. All of the probabilities look finite to me.
No; that probability about a property of the universe is a one-shot trial. It only has to be false once, out of one trial.
So your thesis is not that rationality dooms civilization, but only that as far as we know, it might. I get it now.