The effect is of course not zero but I would expect them most of the time not to have effect sizes that are strong enough to show up.
I’m assuming that the replications have been sufficiently powered as to always exclude the null—if only because they are reaching the ‘crud factor’ level.
If publishable true effects were that easy to come by, fraud wouldn’t be really needed.
They aren’t easy to come by, which is why Many Labs and the replication efforts exist pretty much solely because Arnold chose to bankroll them. The history of meta-science and psychology in the 2010s would look rather different if one Texan billionaire had different interests.
I’m assuming that the replications have been sufficiently powered as to always exclude the null—if only because they are reaching the ‘crud factor’ level.
They aren’t easy to come by, which is why Many Labs and the replication efforts exist pretty much solely because Arnold chose to bankroll them. The history of meta-science and psychology in the 2010s would look rather different if one Texan billionaire had different interests.