[Most predictions in daily life]...aren’t textbook level questions either
That depends. For a student who spends 8 hours per day with learning for university many questions boil down to textbook knowledge.
For a scientist who does biology research it’s also very important that the scientist has a firm grasp about various biology questions that are based on textbook knowledge.
Good rationality training is supposed to make a scientist who studies biology better at biology.
We have strong reason to doubt that: namely, that many well-educated people are also poorly calibrated.
I don’t think that there are many people who are calibrated on their knowledge of textbook questions.
Let me give you an example:
Question: Which enzymes catalyse RNA synthesis?
A) RNA polymerases B) RNA telomerases
The person who answers the question has to say either A or B and predict how likely he’s right.
During most university causes students aren’t asked how likely they think they are right. As a result the students aren’t well calibrated on being right.
That depends. For a student who spends 8 hours per day with learning for university many questions boil down to textbook knowledge. For a scientist who does biology research it’s also very important that the scientist has a firm grasp about various biology questions that are based on textbook knowledge.
Good rationality training is supposed to make a scientist who studies biology better at biology.
I don’t think that there are many people who are calibrated on their knowledge of textbook questions.
Let me give you an example: Question: Which enzymes catalyse RNA synthesis? A) RNA polymerases B) RNA telomerases
The person who answers the question has to say either A or B and predict how likely he’s right.
During most university causes students aren’t asked how likely they think they are right. As a result the students aren’t well calibrated on being right.