If I sometimes write down a 6-nines confidence number because I’m sleepy, then this affects your posterior probability after hearing that I wrote down a 6-nines confidence number, but doesn’t reduce the validity of 6-nines confidence numbers that I write down when I’m alert. The 6-nines confidence number is inside an argument, while your posterior is outside the argument.
My claim is “Basically everyone who writes down high confidence claims is, by default, miscalibrated and mistaken. It should take extraordinary evidence bothfor me to believe your high-confidence claim is calibrated, and separately, for you to believe a high confidence claim of yours is calibrated.” (But, I’d agree that you might have inside view knowledge that makes you justifiably more confident than me)
I do think there are types of things one could be theoretically 6-nine-confident about. (I’m probably that confident about how likely I am to stumble on my next footstep? But that’s because I’ve literally taken 1-3 million footsteps in my life)
I think my nearest-crux for this is “what is the actual world record for number of independent high-confidence claims anyone has made? Is there anyone with a perfect record for a large number of… even 99.99% claims, let alone 6-nine-claims?” (If there were someone who’d gotten a hundred 99.99% claims correct with no failures, I’d elevate to attention “this person might be the sort of person who can make 99.9999% claims and possibly be justified)
If I sometimes write down a 6-nines confidence number because I’m sleepy, then this affects your posterior probability after hearing that I wrote down a 6-nines confidence number, but doesn’t reduce the validity of 6-nines confidence numbers that I write down when I’m alert. The 6-nines confidence number is inside an argument, while your posterior is outside the argument.
Not 100% sure I understand this.
My claim is “Basically everyone who writes down high confidence claims is, by default, miscalibrated and mistaken. It should take extraordinary evidence both for me to believe your high-confidence claim is calibrated, and separately, for you to believe a high confidence claim of yours is calibrated.” (But, I’d agree that you might have inside view knowledge that makes you justifiably more confident than me)
I do think there are types of things one could be theoretically 6-nine-confident about. (I’m probably that confident about how likely I am to stumble on my next footstep? But that’s because I’ve literally taken 1-3 million footsteps in my life)
I think my nearest-crux for this is “what is the actual world record for number of independent high-confidence claims anyone has made? Is there anyone with a perfect record for a large number of… even 99.99% claims, let alone 6-nine-claims?” (If there were someone who’d gotten a hundred 99.99% claims correct with no failures, I’d elevate to attention “this person might be the sort of person who can make 99.9999% claims and possibly be justified)
Do you think that overall reasoning is mistaken?