Does the course use CBT-like techniques, where e.g. when “Leave a line of retreat” is taught, participants specifically list out all the possibilities where fear might be preventing them from thinking carefully, and build themselves lines of retreat for those possibilities? And learn cached heuristics for noticing, through the rest of their lives, when leaving a line of retreat would be a good idea, together with habits for actually doing so? Also, does the course have a community spirit, with peers asking one another how things went, and pushing one another to experiment and implement?
If so, I’d give 50% odds (for each separate proposition, not the conjunction) that the group A salaries are higher variance than the group B’s, and that the 98th percentile wealthiest / most famous / most impactful of group A is significantly wealthier / more famous / more successful at improving their chosen fields than the 98th percentile of group B. Significantly, like… times five, say (though I’d expect a larger multiplier from the “changing their chosen fields to work well” than from the “making more money”; strategicness is more rarely applied to the former, and there’s lower hanging fruit). (I would not expect such a gap between the two groups’ medians.)
Does the course use CBT-like techniques, where e.g. when “Leave a line of retreat” is taught, participants specifically list out all the possibilities where fear might be preventing them from thinking carefully, and build themselves lines of retreat for those possibilities? And learn cached heuristics for noticing, through the rest of their lives, when leaving a line of retreat would be a good idea, together with habits for actually doing so? Also, does the course have a community spirit, with peers asking one another how things went, and pushing one another to experiment and implement?
If so, I’d give 50% odds (for each separate proposition, not the conjunction) that the group A salaries are higher variance than the group B’s, and that the 98th percentile wealthiest / most famous / most impactful of group A is significantly wealthier / more famous / more successful at improving their chosen fields than the 98th percentile of group B. Significantly, like… times five, say (though I’d expect a larger multiplier from the “changing their chosen fields to work well” than from the “making more money”; strategicness is more rarely applied to the former, and there’s lower hanging fruit). (I would not expect such a gap between the two groups’ medians.)