I have more hope than you here. I think we’re seeing Friendly memetic tech evolving that can change how influence comes about. The key tipping point isn’t “World leaders are influenced” but is instead “The Friendly memetic tech hatches a different way of being that can spread quickly.” And the plausible candidates I’ve seen often suggest it’ll spread superexponentially.
This is upstream of making the technical progress and right social maneuvers anyway. There’s insufficient collective will to do enough of the right kind of alignment research. Trying anyway mostly adds to the memetic dumpster fire we’re all in. So unless you have a bonkers once-in-an-aeon brilliant Messiah-level insight, you can’t do this first.
I think we’re seeing Friendly memetic tech evolving that can change how influence comes about.
Wait, literally evolving? How? Coincidence despite orthogonality? Did someone successfully set up an environment that selects for Friendly memes? Or is this not literally evolving, but more like “being developed”?
The key tipping point isn’t “World leaders are influenced” but is instead “The Friendly memetic tech hatches a different way of being that can spread quickly.” And the plausible candidates I’ve seen often suggest it’ll spread superexponentially.
Whoa! I would love to hear more about these plausible candidates.
There’s insufficient collective will to do enough of the right kind of alignment research.
I parse this second point as something like “alignment is hard enough that you need way more quality-adjusted research-years (QARY’s?) than the current track is capable of producing. This means that to have any reasonable shot at success, you basically have to launch a Much larger (but still aligned) movement via memetic tech, or just pray you’re the messiah and can singlehandedly provide all the research value of that mass movement.”. That seems plausible, and concerning, but highly sensitive to difficulty of alignment problem—which I personally have practically zero idea how to forecast.
Two points:
I have more hope than you here. I think we’re seeing Friendly memetic tech evolving that can change how influence comes about. The key tipping point isn’t “World leaders are influenced” but is instead “The Friendly memetic tech hatches a different way of being that can spread quickly.” And the plausible candidates I’ve seen often suggest it’ll spread superexponentially.
This is upstream of making the technical progress and right social maneuvers anyway. There’s insufficient collective will to do enough of the right kind of alignment research. Trying anyway mostly adds to the memetic dumpster fire we’re all in. So unless you have a bonkers once-in-an-aeon brilliant Messiah-level insight, you can’t do this first.
Wait, literally evolving? How? Coincidence despite orthogonality? Did someone successfully set up an environment that selects for Friendly memes? Or is this not literally evolving, but more like “being developed”?
Whoa! I would love to hear more about these plausible candidates.
I parse this second point as something like “alignment is hard enough that you need way more quality-adjusted research-years (QARY’s?) than the current track is capable of producing. This means that to have any reasonable shot at success, you basically have to launch a Much larger (but still aligned) movement via memetic tech, or just pray you’re the messiah and can singlehandedly provide all the research value of that mass movement.”. That seems plausible, and concerning, but highly sensitive to difficulty of alignment problem—which I personally have practically zero idea how to forecast.