Masks probably don’t work against the variants (masks wiped out the flu but not the massive fall/winter covid wave).
This seems like the wrong inference. The R0 of flu is something like 1.2, the R0 of Alpha was about 4 (at pre-COVID levels of social distancing). ‘Masks work’ looks like masks reducing R0 by some factor. If this reduces R0 to below 1, it wipes out the disease, if it remains above 1 you will still get a massive wave. Because the R0 of flu is so much lower, ‘flu was wiped out but COVID wasn’t’ is approximately 0 evidence about the effectiveness of masks.
For example, this paper found a 25% reduction in R0 from universal mask wearing. That would reduce flu to 0.9 and wipe it out, but reduce Alpha to 3, which is still very virulent. Yet, it is still obviously correct to wear a mask
It is obviously correct to wear a mask only if you do not have access to a respirator or PAPR.
Better protection could have wiped out covid just like masks wiped out the flu. While masks may have offered some better-than-nothing protection, it was grossly inadequate protection.
This seems like the wrong inference. The R0 of flu is something like 1.2, the R0 of Alpha was about 4 (at pre-COVID levels of social distancing). ‘Masks work’ looks like masks reducing R0 by some factor. If this reduces R0 to below 1, it wipes out the disease, if it remains above 1 you will still get a massive wave. Because the R0 of flu is so much lower, ‘flu was wiped out but COVID wasn’t’ is approximately 0 evidence about the effectiveness of masks.
For example, this paper found a 25% reduction in R0 from universal mask wearing. That would reduce flu to 0.9 and wipe it out, but reduce Alpha to 3, which is still very virulent. Yet, it is still obviously correct to wear a mask
It is obviously correct to wear a mask only if you do not have access to a respirator or PAPR.
Better protection could have wiped out covid just like masks wiped out the flu. While masks may have offered some better-than-nothing protection, it was grossly inadequate protection.
Sure, I’d agree with this. Things like N95s and P100s are much better than cloth or surgical masks.