I don’t know how exactly to translate two difference subjective probabilities to a bet structure, but before that we ought to agree on what exactly we’re disagreeing over and what the correct answer would look like to determine who wins.
I think that this would necessarily have to be a long-term thing—maybe the scientific consensus X years from now?
I don’t know how exactly to translate two difference subjective probabilities to a bet structure, but before that we ought to agree on what exactly we’re disagreeing over and what the correct answer would look like to determine who wins.
I think that this would necessarily have to be a long-term thing—maybe the scientific consensus X years from now?