On second thought, I think it was a bad estimate. It is very dependent on how many of the people are trying to make them fail, and I really have no idea what that is. It is also very dependent on the lag.
The problem is that there is lag, and a single down vote after they are on the passage makes them have to start over. Trolls and honest people who do not understand the strategy will be pressing down for a large part of the travel, so the likelihood of making it across will not be high. I think it would be generous to say that every time they mess up, it will take them 1 minute to get back to try again. 10 minutes seems more accurate to me.
Most attempts will fail at the beginning, because they need the correct number of people to press down, and no more to get lined up with the ledge. Then the question becomes, can they get 11 lefts and an up before they get a down.
You can see why 40% trolls and 20% trolls will change this estimate a lot.
I do not think this matters that much though, because they changed the system, and the democracy system will make it a lot easier for this part.
Ah. The approach I was thinking of was to model it as a binomial or Poisson, infer the probability of success at each step by noting that it took 12 hours (or let’s say, 720 tries) to have 8 successes in a row, and then calculate how many tries would be required to get 13 successes in a row. Unfortunately I wasn’t sure how to go from ’720 tries for 8 successes in a row’ to ‘probability of 1 success’ and gave up there.
the probability of one success is 720^(1/8), so it should take 720^(13/8) tries, which is about a month. However, the fact that they could line themselves up for the last one just by pressing up and down, and not risking having to start over will make a huge difference.
They did a similar ledge, in about 8 hours, but that ledge was much easier, because you did not risk having to start over just by aligning yourself to get ready to cross it. It was also only length like 6 or 8.
On second thought, I think it was a bad estimate. It is very dependent on how many of the people are trying to make them fail, and I really have no idea what that is. It is also very dependent on the lag.
Here is the route in question.
The problem is that there is lag, and a single down vote after they are on the passage makes them have to start over. Trolls and honest people who do not understand the strategy will be pressing down for a large part of the travel, so the likelihood of making it across will not be high. I think it would be generous to say that every time they mess up, it will take them 1 minute to get back to try again. 10 minutes seems more accurate to me.
Most attempts will fail at the beginning, because they need the correct number of people to press down, and no more to get lined up with the ledge. Then the question becomes, can they get 11 lefts and an up before they get a down.
You can see why 40% trolls and 20% trolls will change this estimate a lot.
I do not think this matters that much though, because they changed the system, and the democracy system will make it a lot easier for this part.
Ah. The approach I was thinking of was to model it as a binomial or Poisson, infer the probability of success at each step by noting that it took 12 hours (or let’s say, 720 tries) to have 8 successes in a row, and then calculate how many tries would be required to get 13 successes in a row. Unfortunately I wasn’t sure how to go from ’720 tries for 8 successes in a row’ to ‘probability of 1 success’ and gave up there.
the probability of one success is 720^(1/8), so it should take 720^(13/8) tries, which is about a month. However, the fact that they could line themselves up for the last one just by pressing up and down, and not risking having to start over will make a huge difference.
They did a similar ledge, in about 8 hours, but that ledge was much easier, because you did not risk having to start over just by aligning yourself to get ready to cross it. It was also only length like 6 or 8.