I was just making a narrow point: the term “existential threat” does not generally have a connotation of “imminent”.
An analysis in The Precipice concludes that the risk of extinction via “natural” asteroid or comet impact is around 1 in 1,000,000 in the next century. I think the probability of human extinction via AI in the next century is much much much much higher than 1 in 1,000,000. If you force me to pick a number, I would say something above 50% in the next 30 years. That’s just my opinion though. There’s quite a range of opinions in the field. I generally think it’s pretty hard to say, within a pretty broad range, at least in my present state of knowledge. However, if someone says it’s below 1% in the next century, then I feel very strongly that they have not thought it through sufficiently carefully, and are overlooking important considerations.
I was just making a narrow point: the term “existential threat” does not generally have a connotation of “imminent”.
An analysis in The Precipice concludes that the risk of extinction via “natural” asteroid or comet impact is around 1 in 1,000,000 in the next century. I think the probability of human extinction via AI in the next century is much much much much higher than 1 in 1,000,000. If you force me to pick a number, I would say something above 50% in the next 30 years. That’s just my opinion though. There’s quite a range of opinions in the field. I generally think it’s pretty hard to say, within a pretty broad range, at least in my present state of knowledge. However, if someone says it’s below 1% in the next century, then I feel very strongly that they have not thought it through sufficiently carefully, and are overlooking important considerations.