Yeah when I say things like “I expect LLMs to plateau before TAI”, I tend not to say it with the supremely high confidence and swagger that you’d hear from e.g. Yann LeCun, François Chollet, Gary Marcus, Dileep George, etc. I’d be more likely to say “I expect LLMs to plateau before TAI … but, well, who knows, I guess. Shrug.” (The last paragraph of this comment is me bringing up a scenario with a vaguely similar flavor to the thing you’re pointing at.)
Yeah when I say things like “I expect LLMs to plateau before TAI”, I tend not to say it with the supremely high confidence and swagger that you’d hear from e.g. Yann LeCun, François Chollet, Gary Marcus, Dileep George, etc. I’d be more likely to say “I expect LLMs to plateau before TAI … but, well, who knows, I guess. Shrug.” (The last paragraph of this comment is me bringing up a scenario with a vaguely similar flavor to the thing you’re pointing at.)