The few sane people that make startups usually succeed, the less sane people make startups and usually fail, that’s my theory.
Basically, there are the sane people who have a good reason to think they succeed, and they make startups, and they succeed (usually), and there’s also much larger number of people who don’t have any good reason they’d succeed, and out of those people, those who are less sane, try to make startups, and fail.
You can’t generalize the sanity of two vastly different populations (those who fail and those who succeed) from average.
Reading reasons off a list may not help the less sane (or simply a small fraction of decision mistakes in a large population) from proceeding anyway, and i’m very biased towards my approach.
Basically, technical excellence, having previously created a profitable product as spin off from a hobby, having positive feedback on products of the hobby, if that is present, the success is much more likely than average, especially if you stick to the customers whom you understand.
I’d be very skeptical about practical ways to apply explicit rationality to anything but ordering of the todo list, sorry. There isn’t a lot of data, and even though Bayesian statistics looks like garbage-in-best-conclusions-out process, it is still a garbage-in-garbage-out process.
The few sane people that make startups usually succeed, the less sane people make startups and usually fail, that’s my theory.
Basically, there are the sane people who have a good reason to think they succeed, and they make startups, and they succeed (usually), and there’s also much larger number of people who don’t have any good reason they’d succeed, and out of those people, those who are less sane, try to make startups, and fail.
You can’t generalize the sanity of two vastly different populations (those who fail and those who succeed) from average.
What would you say are good reasons to think you’ll succeed?
Reading reasons off a list may not help the less sane (or simply a small fraction of decision mistakes in a large population) from proceeding anyway, and i’m very biased towards my approach.
Basically, technical excellence, having previously created a profitable product as spin off from a hobby, having positive feedback on products of the hobby, if that is present, the success is much more likely than average, especially if you stick to the customers whom you understand.
I’d be very skeptical about practical ways to apply explicit rationality to anything but ordering of the todo list, sorry. There isn’t a lot of data, and even though Bayesian statistics looks like garbage-in-best-conclusions-out process, it is still a garbage-in-garbage-out process.