What probability should I assign to being completely wrong and brainwashed by Lesswrong?
Wrong about what? Different subjects call for different probability.
The probability that the Bayes Theorem is wrong is vanishingly small. The probability that the UFAI risk is completely overblown is considerably higher.
LW “ideology” is an agglomeration in the sense that accepting (or not) a part of it does not imply acceptance (or rejection) of other parts. One can be a good Bayesian, not care about UFAI, and be signed up for cryonics—no logical inconsistencies here.
Wrong about what? Different subjects call for different probability.
The probability that the Bayes Theorem is wrong is vanishingly small. The probability that the UFAI risk is completely overblown is considerably higher.
LW “ideology” is an agglomeration in the sense that accepting (or not) a part of it does not imply acceptance (or rejection) of other parts. One can be a good Bayesian, not care about UFAI, and be signed up for cryonics—no logical inconsistencies here.