“What would be wrong with that, if we were?”
The problem with cults is that they tend to assign the probability of 1 to their priors.
Of course it’s a general problem with religions, but quoting Ambrose Bierce’s The Devil’s Dictionary from memory...
Religion, n. -- a large successful cult.
Cult, n. -- a small unsuccessful religion.
Well, one of LW’s dogmas seems to be that 0 and 1 are not probabilities, so...
Ah, but that’s just the sort of thing we’d want you to think we believe, to throw you off the scent!
Do we assign the probability of 1 to our priors?
LW regulars are a diverse bunch. Though I have no evidence I am pretty sure some assign the probability of 1 to some priors.
Yes, I agree.
When you said that the problem with religions is that they tend to assign the probability of 1 to their priors, did you mean to include having some members who assign probability 1 to some priors in the category you were identifying as problematic?
Insofar the religion encourages or at least accepts those “some” members and stands behind them, and insofar these priors are important, yes.
OK, cool. Thanks for clarifying.
The problem with cults is that they tend to assign the probability of 1 to their priors.
Of course it’s a general problem with religions, but quoting Ambrose Bierce’s The Devil’s Dictionary from memory...
Religion, n. -- a large successful cult.
Cult, n. -- a small unsuccessful religion.
Well, one of LW’s dogmas seems to be that 0 and 1 are not probabilities, so...
Ah, but that’s just the sort of thing we’d want you to think we believe, to throw you off the scent!
Do we assign the probability of 1 to our priors?
LW regulars are a diverse bunch. Though I have no evidence I am pretty sure some assign the probability of 1 to some priors.
Yes, I agree.
When you said that the problem with religions is that they tend to assign the probability of 1 to their priors, did you mean to include having some members who assign probability 1 to some priors in the category you were identifying as problematic?
Insofar the religion encourages or at least accepts those “some” members and stands behind them, and insofar these priors are important, yes.
OK, cool. Thanks for clarifying.