I must say that I am very surprised. I was completely not worried about Russia supporting the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia supporting Russian-speaking regions full of Russians who seem to not want to be a part of Ukraine—that makes a lot of sense in my head.
I hadn’t expected Russia to attack the rest of Ukraine. I don’t see what there is to gain for them there?
I’m watching the official Dutch news (NOS) and they claim Russian tanks and troops are rolling into Ukraine from all sides, from the east, from Belarussia and from Crimae. There is some evidence for Russian tanks and troops indeed crossing some borders, but I’ve not seen evidence of land units deeper into Ukraine, beyond the easternmost regions where conflict has been raging for years?
I can imagine things being better than expected if reports of Russian land units in western Ukrain are exaggerated. But if Russia is truly waging war against the entire Ukrainian state, I expect things to turn out quite badly. This will create massive tensions in Europe. Russia might be completely cut off from the West, which also means ‘we’ Europeans can’t rely on Russian gas anymore. Energy prices are already very high.
This could cause all kinds of unforeseen consequences, like how COVID went from a pandemic to BLM riots in a couple of months.
Update, 5 hours later: more pieces of evidence have emerged, indicating that land units are actually advancing deeper into Ukraine. This is bad.
Russia attacking the rest of Ukraine may be a tactic to keep Ukraine from concentrating it’s forces in the east, rather than an attempt to take significant territory. It’s still possible Russia will stop and consolidate gains after taking a chunk of the east (like in Georgia and Crimea).
Occupying Kiev is the kind of thing where cheap weapons (missiles) can destroy expensive weapons (tanks), and is probably very undesirable, depending on how many of those cheap weapons have gotten and will get to Ukrainians. It might be possible to install a puppet government with minimal losses, though.
I agree, since the start of the rumblings, I had updated from (significant territorial gains to Dnieper and maybe Odessa region) to (integrating Luhansk and Donetsk with fighting in other parts of Eastern Ukraine). Putin got me there.
However, the initial reporting making it sound like an all-out invasion is happening is based largely on missile attacks, so it’s possible that we’re just seeing forward strikes and fighting could remain in the East (including Northern East). Kyiv is of course eventually on the radar in any situation. But “invading from Belarus” would be very different if it were into Volyn and Rivne vs. Chernihiv (BBC says Chernihiv).
I must say that I am very surprised. I was completely not worried about Russia supporting the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia supporting Russian-speaking regions full of Russians who seem to not want to be a part of Ukraine—that makes a lot of sense in my head.
I hadn’t expected Russia to attack the rest of Ukraine. I don’t see what there is to gain for them there?
I’m watching the official Dutch news (NOS) and they claim Russian tanks and troops are rolling into Ukraine from all sides, from the east, from Belarussia and from Crimae. There is some evidence for Russian tanks and troops indeed crossing some borders, but I’ve not seen evidence of land units deeper into Ukraine, beyond the easternmost regions where conflict has been raging for years?
I can imagine things being better than expected if reports of Russian land units in western Ukrain are exaggerated. But if Russia is truly waging war against the entire Ukrainian state, I expect things to turn out quite badly. This will create massive tensions in Europe. Russia might be completely cut off from the West, which also means ‘we’ Europeans can’t rely on Russian gas anymore. Energy prices are already very high.
This could cause all kinds of unforeseen consequences, like how COVID went from a pandemic to BLM riots in a couple of months.
Update, 5 hours later: more pieces of evidence have emerged, indicating that land units are actually advancing deeper into Ukraine. This is bad.
This could plausibly be because the war is already priced in. A lot of money is at stake, and I guess many players had good estimates about it.
Good Judgement has been predicting a military conflict with more than 50% for some months now:
Russia attacking the rest of Ukraine may be a tactic to keep Ukraine from concentrating it’s forces in the east, rather than an attempt to take significant territory. It’s still possible Russia will stop and consolidate gains after taking a chunk of the east (like in Georgia and Crimea).
Occupying Kiev is the kind of thing where cheap weapons (missiles) can destroy expensive weapons (tanks), and is probably very undesirable, depending on how many of those cheap weapons have gotten and will get to Ukrainians. It might be possible to install a puppet government with minimal losses, though.
Russian troops on CNN 15 miles outside of Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/iamsuffian/status/1496852857525465096
I agree, since the start of the rumblings, I had updated from (significant territorial gains to Dnieper and maybe Odessa region) to (integrating Luhansk and Donetsk with fighting in other parts of Eastern Ukraine). Putin got me there.
However, the initial reporting making it sound like an all-out invasion is happening is based largely on missile attacks, so it’s possible that we’re just seeing forward strikes and fighting could remain in the East (including Northern East). Kyiv is of course eventually on the radar in any situation. But “invading from Belarus” would be very different if it were into Volyn and Rivne vs. Chernihiv (BBC says Chernihiv).