I agree, since the start of the rumblings, I had updated from (significant territorial gains to Dnieper and maybe Odessa region) to (integrating Luhansk and Donetsk with fighting in other parts of Eastern Ukraine). Putin got me there.
However, the initial reporting making it sound like an all-out invasion is happening is based largely on missile attacks, so it’s possible that we’re just seeing forward strikes and fighting could remain in the East (including Northern East). Kyiv is of course eventually on the radar in any situation. But “invading from Belarus” would be very different if it were into Volyn and Rivne vs. Chernihiv (BBC says Chernihiv).
I agree, since the start of the rumblings, I had updated from (significant territorial gains to Dnieper and maybe Odessa region) to (integrating Luhansk and Donetsk with fighting in other parts of Eastern Ukraine). Putin got me there.
However, the initial reporting making it sound like an all-out invasion is happening is based largely on missile attacks, so it’s possible that we’re just seeing forward strikes and fighting could remain in the East (including Northern East). Kyiv is of course eventually on the radar in any situation. But “invading from Belarus” would be very different if it were into Volyn and Rivne vs. Chernihiv (BBC says Chernihiv).